IATA: Economic headwinds hit demand in November

Global air cargo demand registered another double-digit fall in November due to economic headwinds, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

Demand measured in cargo tonne kilometres was down 13.7% year-on-year, due to several factors affecting the operating environment.

Global export orders were stable, shrinking in major economies except Germany, the US and South Korea, where they grew.

The global goods trade expanded 3.3%, which, given the soft air cargo demand, suggests that maritime cargo was the primary beneficiary.

The sharply appreciating US dollar added to the cost pressure as many costs are denominated in US dollars.

The Consumer Price Index for G7 countries decreased from 7.8% in October to 7.4% in November, the largest month-on-month decline in 2022, and inflation in producer (input) prices reduced to 12.7% in November, the lowest level so far in 2022.

Capacity in available cargo tonne kilometres was 1.9% below November 2021, and compared to pre-Covid levels in November 2019, demand is down 10.1% and capacity by 8.8%.

Willie Walsh, Director General of IATA, says, “Air cargo performance softened in November, the traditional peak season. Resilience in the face of economic uncertainties is demonstrated with demand being relatively stable on a month-to-month basis. But market signals are mixed. November presented several indicators with upside potential: oil prices stabilised, inflation slowed and there was a slight expansion in goods traded globally. But shrinking export orders globally and China’s rising COVID cases are cause for careful monitoring.”