Demand measured in freight tonne kilometres was down 14.9% in January and capacity was up 3.9% due to returning belly capacity on passenger aircraft offsetting the reduction of freighter capacity.
IATA says the global new export orders component of the manufacturing PMI increased for the first time since October, growing in major economies, with PMI levels close to 50 in the US and China indicating that demand for manufactured goods in the world’s 2 largest economies is stabilising.
Global goods trade decreased by 3% in December, the second monthly decline in a row.
The Consumer Price Index for G7 economies decreased from 7.4% in November to 6.7% in January and the inflation in producer (input) prices reduced by 2.2 percentage points to 9.6% in December.
Willie Walsh, Director General of IATA says that falling demand and rising capacity means 2023 begins with challenging operating conditions, which are accompanied by persistent uncertainties including the war in Ukraine, inflation and labour shortages.
He says, “But there is solid ground for some cautious optimism about air cargo. Yields remain higher than pre-pandemic. And China’s much faster than expected shift from its zero Covid policy is stabilising production conditions in air cargo’s largest source market. That will give a much-needed demand boost as companies increase their engagement with China.”
In Asia-Pacific, airlines saw cargo volumes decrease 19% due to lower levels of trade and manufacturing activity and supply chain disruption due to residual effects of Covid restrictions and the timing of Chinese New Year.
North America was down 8.7% in January, slightly worse than the December decline of 8.5%.
Europe was the weakest performer, down 20.4%, with airlines most heavily affected by the war in Ukraine.
The Middle East was down 11.8%, an improvement compared to December when the decline was 14.4%.
Latin America was the strongest performer, growing 4.6% compared to no growth in December.
Africa decreased 9.5%, an improvement on December when demand was down 10%.