Demand, measured in freight tonne kilometres, rose 2.3% in the month of August 2018 compared to the same period in 2017. While the rate of growth was unchanged from the previous month, it was less than half the five-year average growth rate of 5.1%.
Freight capacity, measured in available freight tonne kilometres, meanwhile grew by 4.5% year-on-year in August: the sixth consecutive month that capacity growth exceeded demand growth. IATA maintains that yields appear to be “holding up”, however.
While growth is being supported by buoyant consumer confidence, an upturn in the global investment cycle and growing international e-commerce, demand is being negatively impacted by three factors: weakening export order books for manufacturers, specifically those in Europe, China, Japan and Korea; longer supplier delivery times in Asia and Europe, which typically equate to less need for the speed afforded by air freight; and risks to global trade from the recent escalation in trade tensions.
"The early focus of tariffs was not on products typically carried by air. But as the list of tariffs grows so does the air cargo industry’s vulnerability,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA's Director General and CEO. “And, we can expect souring trading relations to eventually impact business travel. There are no winners in trade wars.”
August results by region:
Asia-Pacific airlines saw demand for air freight grow by 1.6% in August 2018.
North American airlines’ freight volumes expanded 2.8% in August 2018.
European airlines posted an increase in demand of 3.7% - the fastest growth of any region in August 2018.
Middle Eastern carriers’ posted a 2.2% increase in freight volumes in August.
Latin American airlines experienced an increase of 1.6% in freight demand growth in August 2018.
African carriers saw freight demand contract by 7.1% in August 2018.
Full results can be viewed here.