IATA’s data says that demand measured in cargo tonne kilometres (CTK) increased 10.8% in December and demand for the whole year was down 1.9% compared to last year and 3.6% below 2019.
Capacity measured in available CTK (ACTK) was 11.3% above last year and 2.5% higher than 2019.
Key indicators noted by IATA include global cross-border growing for the third consecutive month in October, reversing the downward trend.
Inflation in both the US and European Union measured by the Consumer Price Indices (CPI) stayed below 3.5% but China’s CPI indicated deflation for the third consecutive month, raising concerns of an economic slowdown.
The manufacturing output and new export order Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs) continued to hover below the 50-mark suggesting contraction.
Willie Walsh, Director General of IATA, says, “Although full year demand was shy of pre-Covid levels by 3.6%, the significant strengthening in the last quarter is a sign that markets are stabilising towards more normal demand patterns. That puts the industry on very solid ground for success in 2024. But with continued, and in some cases intensifying, instability in geopolitics and economic forces, little should be taken for granted in the months ahead.”
Asia-Pacific posted a 0.9% increase in demand for the year and airlines recorded the best performance globally in December, up 18.5% compared to 2022.
North American carriers registered the worst performance, down 5.7% compared to 2022 and demand decreased 2% in December.
European carriers decreased 3.9% in December with airlines in the region continuing to be most badly affected by the war in Ukraine, but December was better with an 8.6% increase in demand.
The Middle East was up 1.6% in 2023 and ended the year with demand increasing 18.3% in December.
Latin America had the strongest performance of 2023, up 2% compared to 2022 and demand increased by 6.4% in December.
Africa ended 2023 1.8% below 2022 and had a weak end to the year with a 1.2% decrease in demand in December.
The Red Sea disruption increased air cargo demand and yields with data showing a 1% increase in demand and yields rising 5% when comparing the week commencing 4 November to the week ending 9 December.
The data also says demand in the Asia-Pacific region grew by 2% and yields by 6%, demand between China and the rest of the world was up 1% and yields by 11%.
Europe’s demand remained steady and yields were up 3% and in the Middle East, demand also remained constant with yields rising 4%.
IATA says the data showed a normalisation of demand and yields in the last half of December.
Walsh says disruption to maritime routes in the Red Sea has made some shippers move to air cargo, leading to rising yields on related trade lanes.
He says, “A similar spike is expected in January as disruptions intensified. While not all cargo is suitable for air transport, it is a vital option for some of the most urgent shipments in extraordinary circumstances. And that is critical to the continuity of the global economy.”