While the first half of 2018 brought an overall year-on-year growth of 3.7%, according to air cargo market database WorldACD, year-to-date growth has slowly but surely decreased over the past several months.
Accounts of industry performance have varied dramatically of late. Carriers such as WestJet and airports like Schiphol have reported decline, while Lufthansa has reported robust second quarter growth and Air France KLM has documented a rise in cargo revenues. Given the divergent nature of accounts, there is uncertainty regarding the prospects for the second half of 2018.
WorldACD suggested that, while predicting the remainder of the year based on June’s performance may not be advisable, it is nonetheless noteworthy that business from Asia Pacific to the other regions did not improve from June 2017, seeing a decline of -0.1% year-on-year. Air cargo from Africa, Europe and the Middle East also contracted year-on-year by almost 4%.
The news has been better in the Americas, however, where the US has enjoyed high economic growth, while South America continues its recovery.
Exports by air from China to the US dropped considerably in June, most likely down to the introduction of punitive trade tariffs. This market has already been underperforming for the first half of 2018 already (down 2.9% y-o-y), but the June decline of -5.9% y-o-y could indicate a worsening climate between the two countries.
Exports from China to Europe were also negative in June, down 2.9%; however, US to Europe showed growth of 3.7% y-o-y, which is above the global average despite being much lower than earlier in the year, when it reached 8%.
US exports by air to China, meanwhile, grew more than the overall air cargo exports from the US, with a y-oy- growth of 3%.