They are down 9% year-on-year in September, continuing the downward trend since the start of the year, pointing to a deteriorating air cargo market.
In September, general cargo spot rates continued to fall below seasonal rates though seasonal capacity constraints out of East Asia were more resistant than ocean freight.
Ocean freight spot rates from Asia to Europe were down 49% compared to 19% for airfreight.
Global cargo demand measured in chargeable weight continued its negative trend by dropping 5% year-on-year in September and down 2% compared to 2019.
Declining volumes comes as airlines reintroduce passenger and cargo capacity from east Asia, most notably Hong Kong, Japan and Taiwan as Covid restrictions get lifted.
Global capacity was up 5% on last September and is just 7% below 2019.
Declining demand and rising capacity has pushed the dynamic load factor down 7 percentage points year-on-year to 59%, 2 percentage points down on September 2019.
Niall van de Wouw, Chief Airfreight Officer of Xeneta, which acquired CLIVE earlier this year, says, “What we see is a very ‘jumpy’ air cargo market which responds very quickly to global events, whether this is the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, rising inflation, the pressure on Sterling, or the stronger US dollar. It’s still early to judge how such events will be reflected in the air freight market over the rest of this year but we see no indications that demand will pick up from a macroeconomic perspective.”
Looking into the peak season, van de Wouw says, “We see a flat air cargo market in terms of demand, but the fall in general air freight rates and load factor are likely to be exacerbated by the continuing return of capacity, even as we head towards a winter season when, traditionally, we would expect to see cargo space in the prime Europe and North America markets cut back. Shippers who have held their nerve and not shipped their peak season goods early by air are likely to find themselves in a stronger buying position.”