Releasing its industry forecast at the IATA Annual General Meeting in Doha, Qatar, 68 million tonnes of cargo is expected to be carried in 2022 though revenue and yields will take a dip.
IATA forecasts $191bn of cargo revenue, down from $204bn in 2021 but nearly double the $100bn achieved in 2019.
The trading environment has soften with yields expected to decrease 10.4% but yields had increased 52.5% in 2020 and 24.2% in 2021.
For the airline industry, losses are expected to fall to $9.7bn, down from $42.1bn in 2021 and $137.7bn in 2020. Profitability is predicted for 2023 due to pent-up travel demand.
Willie Walsh, Director General of IATA, says, “Losses will be cut to $9.7 billion this year and profitability is on the horizon for 2023. It is a time for optimism, even if there are still challenges on costs, particularly fuel, and some lingering restrictions in a few key markets.”
The macroeconomic backdrop is critical for aviation; GDP is expected to grow 3.4% in 2022 compared to 5.8% in 2021, and inflation will be high in 2022 before slowing in 2023.
For cargo, the war in Ukraine has mainly impacted heavyweight cargo, with capacity being lost that is hard to replace.
Just under 1% of global cargo originated in or transited through Russia and Ukraine but almost 20% used Russian airspace in 2021, and airlines are facing higher costs due to re-routing flights to avoid Russia and Belarus’ airspace.